Pas de deux - Pakistan and Terrorism

A few months ago, I had described Pakistan's sinister role in global terrorism using another dance analogy. Nothing much has changed since then in the continuing Danse Macabre and Pakistan's role as its major choreographer.

The recent bust of the British terrorism plot of blowing up airplanes using liquid explosives was facilitated by the cooperation of the Pakistani government.  So that makes Pakistan a good guy in the war on terrorism, right?  Not quite. The answer is not so simple. It appears that Pakistan has decided to play a complex, dual role in the world theater against terrorism. Pakistan hopes to inoculate itself against the wrath of the west by catching those who wish to harm the US and Europe, thereby gaining the accolades necessary to keep all attention averted from what it wishes to do in its own neighborhood. Especially when it comes to its historical enemy, India.  The recent bomb blasts on trains in Mumbai and the unconfirmed rumor about a possible attack during India's upcoming Independence Day celebrations, all point to miscreants crossing the border from Pakistan or local terrorists recruited by them. Until the long festering problem of Kashmir is solved to Pakistan's satisfaction, instead of a costly full blown war, a sustained psychological warfare with India, involving frequent terrorist attacks may be the method of choice and convenience. The government of Pakistan can thus retain public deniability while India continues to pay a high price in terms of human lives and damage to infrastructure and public confidence. 

I hope that the Indian government realizes that it is on its own when it comes to terrorism within its borders. No matter that the US and India are cozying up to each other for mutually beneficial economic deals. When it comes to national security matters, real politik will decide how much help to expect from western allies.  As long as Musharraf helps catch some Al Qaida big fish for the benefit of the US and Europe, western nations will more than likely turn a blind eye and a deaf ear to India's problems with Islamic terrorism.  It is in India's own interest to develop good relations with Muslim countries, especially old allies like Iran. Better still, it must find a way to make peace with Pakistan at long last. It may be less exciting to mend fences with old enemies than to build bridges with new friends, especially those fueled by the glittery allure of free market and economic boom. But boring may triumph over glamorous when it comes to ending terrorism. Until then, India, like the US and Israel, must live in fear and look over its shoulder at every street corner, train station and airport.   Here is a chilling story about Pakistan's dangerous penchant for playing both sides of the field.

Focus on Pakistan shows it as enemy of, haven to terrorism
Al-Qaida leaders have been caught, but other groups often are tolerated

"The trail of evidence in the British terrorism investigation is leading to an uncomfortable question for the Bush administration: Is Pakistan — rather than Iraq, Afghanistan or some other country — the central front in the war on terrorism?

The conspiracy described by British and American authorities serves as a reminder that one of the administration's leading allies in the region is also host to some of its worst enemies. It also is igniting a debate on whether the Bush administration's effort to support Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has done enough to stem Islamic radicalism in a country whose citizens are among the most strongly anti-American of any in the world.

Pakistan announced Friday that it had detained several suspects this week, including a British national considered an important figure in the alleged British plot. U.S. and British investigators say that some of the 24 arrested in Britain, most of them British citizens of Pakistani descent, may have had ties to radical fundamentalist groups in Pakistan. Similarly, militants who attacked the London transport system last year had ties to Pakistani groups.

While Musharraf has helped the Bush administration fight some terrorist organizations in his country, he has done little to halt others, or bring to justice the government officials who support them. Yet the Bush administration, already pressing Musharraf for help on a number of fronts, fears that pushing the weak leader of an unstable, nuclear-armed government too far could make matters worse.

President Bush, who has called Musharraf a "man of courage," has given the Pakistani leader billions of dollars in aid, offered critical political support and approved the sale of such advanced weapons as F-16 fighter planes.

In return, U.S. officials have been given many investigative leads on terrorism suspects, including members of al-Qaida. Americans also have received help on the Afghan border and pledges to halt nuclear proliferation activities.  Khalid Shaikh Mohammed, the mastermind of the Sept. 11 attacks; Ramzi Binalshibh, who managed the attack; and Abu Zubeida, al-Qaida's one-time operations director, all were captured in Pakistan.  U.S. and British authorities have strongly praised the Pakistani authorities, who arrested as many as 17 suspects, for their help in the alleged plot.

But Musharraf has balked at other U.S. requests, denying access, for example, to Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan, who as the father of Pakistan's nuclear weapons program was a key figure in the spread of nuclear know-how around the world.

Most damaging, while Musharraf has gone after terrorist groups he believes may threaten his government, he has resisted efforts to crack down on other organizations that he believes serve Pakistan's interests against rival India, or have substantial domestic support. He has not been seen as energetic in helping U.S. forces find Taliban fighters in border regions, and has refused to go after groups that support the insurgency in the disputed, territory of Kashmir.

While some of these groups may appear distinct from al-Qaida, many share a web of contacts, Abbas said. Musharraf "tries to differentiate between the two kinds of groups, but you can't," he said.

Comments

[Sujatha]

I don't think that the Indian government is under any illusions that the US will lean on Pakistan to dissuade it from its double game. While continuing cautiously with bilateral talks to increase bonhomie, realpolitik demands that India would be aware of just how far Musharraf would be willing to go, given the tightrope he walks between placating the fundamentalist products of the madrassas and catering to needs of the US govt. in providing them suitable 'bakras'. I would however question how far Sonia's foreign connections and 'guidance' of Manmohan Singh's government's policies is tempering the response to acts of terror like the Mumbai train blasts . For that matter, I'm not sure how zealously Indian interests have been guarded in bilateral nuclear cooperation agreement signed recently between the US and India.
When you say "Until then, India, like the US and Israel, must live in fear and look over its shoulder at every street corner, train station and airport", I beg to differ. The centuries of fatalism have taught Indians one thing - life goes on, irrespective of what horrors happen. The Mumbaikars have taken it in stride and continue gamely with their lives, without the same level of paranoia that was engendered in the US and UK over the 'liquid bomb' plots.

[Ruchira Paul]

Sujatha:
I hope you are right - about the lack of paranoia in India. From my early life experiences there, I tend to agree with you. I would hate to see India (fatalistic or not) adopt the kind of knee jerk angry, fortress mentality that seems increasingly the plight of Americans and Israelis.

[Sujatha]

"I'll take the same train and sit in the same compartment. What is there to fear?". More accounts from the Mumbai train blast survivors linked to at the bottom of this account on rediff.com