New estimate: WOT countereffective (Joe)

Lend anything enough weight and credibility and it becomes important, right?  And in this case, we're talking about a lot:

National Intelligence Estimates are the most authoritative documents that the intelligence community produces on a specific national security issue, and are approved by John D. Negroponte, director of national intelligence. Their conclusions are based on analysis of raw intelligence collected by all of the spy agencies.

What does the estimate say, you ask?  Well you remember how leading up to the invasion of Iraq intelligent people noted that not only would said invasion be unjust, but that if we wanted to deal with terrorism maybe we should stop and try to understand the driving forces behind terrorism rather than simply assaulting the Middle East?  Those people were dismissed as, I believe, cowardly bleeding-heart soft-on-"terror" liberals.  Well as it turns out, George Bush got to fire his guns, and I'm sure that's worth something to the people who actually have to deal with the unbelievably aggressive psychopath, but in for the rest of us, things have been made much, much worse:

A stark assessment of terrorism trends by American intelligence agencies has found that the American invasion and occupation of Iraq has helped spawn a new generation of Islamic radicalism and that the overall terrorist threat has grown since the Sept. 11 attacks.

The classified National Intelligence Estimate attributes a more direct role to the Iraq war in fueling radicalism than that presented either in recent White House documents or in a report released Wednesday by the House Intelligence Committee, according to several officials in Washington involved in preparing the assessment or who have read the final document.

The intelligence estimate, completed in April, is the first formal appraisal of global terrorism by United States intelligence agencies since the Iraq war began, and represents a consensus view of the 16 disparate spy services inside government. Titled “Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States,” it asserts that Islamic radicalism, rather than being in retreat, has metastasized and spread across the globe.

An opening section of the report, “Indicators of the Spread of the Global Jihadist Movement,” cites the Iraq war as a reason for the diffusion of jihad ideology.

The report “says that the Iraq war has made the overall terrorism problem worse,” said one American intelligence official.

More than a dozen United States government officials and outside experts were interviewed for this article, and all spoke only on condition of anonymity because they were discussing a classified intelligence document. The officials included employees of several government agencies, and both supporters and critics of the Bush administration. All of those interviewed had either seen the final version of the document or participated in the creation of earlier drafts. These officials discussed some of the document’s general conclusions but not details, which remain highly classified.

Officials with knowledge of the intelligence estimate said it avoided specific judgments about the likelihood that terrorists would once again strike on United States soil. The relationship between the Iraq war and terrorism, and the question of whether the United States is safer, have been subjects of persistent debate since the war began in 2003.

Not that this should be surprising, mind you.  But it's important because of who's saying it -- it should almost, almost, force wingnuts to stop and listen.

Comments

[Ruchira Paul]

Why am I not surprised? The number of Iraqi deaths is staggering - how many are wishing that Saddam was in power? American war deaths in both battle sectors now equal number of deaths on 9/11. But guess what the ever dependable Dems have been up to? Losing ground on public confidence by squandering the two years since 2004 without a coherent message, asking no hard questions and pandering on Mickey Mouse issues and picking on Howard Dean instead of the real culprit. Forget 2008.

[Sujatha]

Unfortunately the wingnuts have their fingers stuck firmly in their ears, singing "Na-na-na-na"- we're turning into a banana republic where the Dear Leader's utterances are gospel and everything else is trash talk.

[Ruchira Paul]

This is ridiculous but again, exactly what one should expect from this lying bunch. Bush's words are not just gospel but retroactively edited and cleaned up to fit the disastrous facts of the last five years. On last evening's 60 Minutes, Condi Rice shamelessly declared to Katy Couric that she would do everything the same way all over again, for the very same reasons -- even after she conceded that the intelligence was "flawed."

Michael Kingsley has a piece in Slate describing how all narrative from the Bush White House goes backwards to justify the premature "Mission Accomplished" declared aboard the aircraft carrier in May, 2003. It is quite funny, but also terrifying. Because now with the Democrats tanking in the polls and a possible Republican win in November, Bush will have 2 more years to trash the world thoroughly.

[Joe]

I'm not terribly worried about the Dems tanking in the polls, at least. Because the one thing I think they could be counted on for, is that even if they won a majority in both houses, they would not effectively stand up to the President on any matter of importance.