The news outlets are full of reports about the impending global epidemic of swine flu. With cold weather on its way in the northern hemisphere and regular flu season beginning around September, we are being warned about a sharp uptick in the spread of the H1N1 (aka swine flu) virus. Drug companies are scrambling to produce a vaccine against the virus. Mass vaccination was earlier expected to be in full swing by the middle of October. Now US health officials are saying that the vaccine supply will fall short of their earlier estimate thereby delaying the vaccination campaign.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. officials Monday said they had slashed their estimate of how many swine flu vaccine doses will be available for the start of a mass vaccination campaign in the fall. Citing delays in manufacturing and packaging the vaccines, the Department of Health and Human Services said only 45 million doses of the new H1N1 vaccine would be on hand in mid-October, instead of the 120 million previously forecast.
The revised delivery guidelines would push back a government estimate that all those requiring vaccinations be immunized by the first week of December.
"Our latest information from the manufacturers tells us that we now expect to have about 45 million doses by October 15 with approximately 20 million doses being delivered each week Thereafter, up to the 195 million doses that we have purchased," Bill Hall, an HHS spokesman, said in an e-mail.
The Geneva-based World Health Organisation declared H1N1 a full pandemic in June, and the virus has spread to about 180 countries. World health officials have said people should receive the two-dose swine flu vaccination as well as the single-dose seasonal flu vaccination this year.
Now, I don't mean to come across as dismissive of the dangers of a swine flu outbreak. If I had young children of school age or family members with respiratory conditions like asthma, I would be concerned. However, having grown up in a country with rampant infectious agents in the environment, in an era when few vaccines were available, I am a bit more realistic about what can or cannot be done during the spread of a contagious disease. When I was a child in the 1950s, we lived amidst routine outbreaks of small pox (this scary disease would be controlled and eradicated only a couple of decades later), cholera, typhoid, whooping cough, malaria, measles, mumps, jaundice, dysentery and flu. Tuberculosis was widespread in the population. Leprosy victims sat at street corners and came to one's front door to beg for food and money (leprosy is not contagious in the short term). One never knew what one would be exposed to on stepping out of the home and being in crowded places. Almost every place in India is a crowded place.
My sister and I grew up in the care of an intelligent and hygienically cautious mother. From early childhood we were trained to acquire some common-sensical habits without becoming unduly paranoid. Our mother taught us to:
My sister and I were very healthy children and have remained mostly disease free well into our middle age. Perhaps we are blessed with good immune systems or it is pure dumb luck. Or it could be that our mother's training bore fruit.
To protect yourself and your kids against swine flu (or any other flu) during the high flu season, you should do all the things that my mother taught me and some more.
I am sure most of you are aware of these precautions and probably the steps are already in place for your family. I am reinforcing them as a mature person who knows from experience that simple cautionary steps help even in panicky times.
There is another preventive measure that my mother taught us which you may not know and I have never seen it mentioned anywhere in public health guidelines. Gargling and irrigating the nasal passages with warm saline water is a stunningly effective way to destroy pathogens in our respiratory tract. During cold season when respiratory diseases are common, this practice (once or twice a day) can ward off many infections as well as any medication available at the pharmacy. I am not sure if this method will work against the H1N1 virus. But there’s no harm trying. See if you can inculcate this habit in your kids and yourself. Good luck and stay well.
(For more swine flu related cartoons from all over the world, see here)
Random remarks here. Your suggestion to visit the doctor at the first sign of flu like symptoms reminds me of an experience I had earlier this year during the first go-round of the scare. I had flu-like symptoms. I read a bit about the new strains and decided that I was not a probable case. Nevertheless, my medical diagnostic skills being a bit rusty, I went to the doctor when I would have preferred to stay in bed. The doctor first asked me if I would have even considered seeing him had there been no scare. "Of course not," I replied. Then he worried a bit and admitted he had never before had to make this sort of call. To prescribe, or not to prescribe? Was his duty to me or to the community, in the face of a scarcity of termiflu? I told him not to bother, so he wrote a prescription and asked me to fill it only if I acquired two more swine flu symptoms. I didn't, so I didn't.
I am allergic to Berkeley. I often go weeks hacking, with a runny or (yech!) crusty nose. Only recently did a friend inform me about neti pot. I really need to buy one of those.
Finally, the swine flu outbreak offers an occasion to retell a good Woody Allen joke. A man tells a friend his wife has all the symptoms of swine flu. The friend replies, "Why hasn't she gone to the doctor?" "We need the bacon."
Posted by: Dean C. Rowan | August 19, 2009 at 02:40 PM
Advise that needs to be repeated continually..Wash hand, cover mouth and noise when you sneeze. There is probably a huge worry about the swine flu, but my concern is more about the vaccine that has been developed to prevent the swine flu. Yes, get the flu shot, but how about the new vaccine that they are sending out. Concerns have already been raised that the new vaccine has not been sufficiently tested and that the effects, especially on children, are unknown. Like all vaccines, the long-term mercury-poisoning and immune-system harms will not even be looked for. Most “trials” will only look for adverse effects for 21 days.
Posted by: Ajlouny | August 25, 2009 at 11:22 PM
Thanks for the discussion...I think we need to know about this flu before getting panic attacks.
Posted by: Travacor | August 28, 2009 at 01:44 PM
Awesome job on your blog!! Here is some more info. on the Swine Flu: http://swinefluh1n1truth.blogspot.com/
Facts
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Posted by: Tina | September 02, 2009 at 09:29 PM
"Like all vaccines, the long-term mercury-poisoning and immune-system harms will not even be looked for. Most “trials” will only look for adverse effects for 21 days."
Let me say this slowly: there is no such thing as mercury poisoning in vaccines. It's this sort of dangerous misinformation that will lead to serious, global-scale reintroduction of things like measles, mumps, diphtheria, and other diseases that we've already basically eliminated from the civilized world.
Please, please, read some science before you go around refusing vaccines based on the fact that a decade ago we sometimes used a preservative in vaccines that we (possibly) shouldn't have. No mercury-based preservatives have been found in vaccines since 1999.
Posted by: Chuck | September 03, 2009 at 10:34 AM
ok, but what about this, chuck?
http://abcnews.go.com/m/screen?id=8206167&pid=26
Posted by: Fred | September 05, 2009 at 09:35 PM
It's good news that the flu did not spread as people feared it would. Early detection and prevention is capable of stopping a potential epidemic on its tracks. But despite these good news, people should still make it a habit to consult with their doctor immediately after detecting symptoms.
Posted by: Morgan Humble | August 17, 2011 at 12:03 PM