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« (Cyrus) | Main | Glenn Beck Damns Frances Fox Pivens with Feigned Praise (Norman Costa) »

January 25, 2011


The border of India is on the Indus , not on the Radcliffe line.
Wow! That's going to ruffle some feathers of many hues :-)

Do you really subscribe to this scenario actually unfolding? If I read you correctly, basically you are predicting a break up of Pakistan - the NWFP and the other mountainous regions being overrun by the Taliban (independent territory or absorbed into Afghanistn?) and the plains joining up (or forming a loose federation) with India. Are you including the very northern Karakoram region like Baltistan-Gilgit among the "mountains" in Taliban control?

Re: your previous post about Islamic authoritarian nations, what do you think of the rumblings in Tunisia and now in Egypt?

Ruchira, every scenario in that post is not "my scenario"...those are actually things i heard from friends during the trip. My scenario is that Pakistan will survive in its present form, but with some difficulty. And that India and Iran and the USA and China will all help Pakistan to survive because they all have too much to lose in a breakup and its aftermath. I will try to clarify this some more soon.
Got to run, but i am posting two comments i wrote on a facebook page about the Egypt issue, I think the context is pretty clear from the comments:

I think that the ruling elite will survive, but may have to sacrifice the crook Mubarak and send him to retirement in Jeddah if things get out of hand. Then they will ban alcohol on Fridays or do some other bullshit like that to keep the mullahs happy and meanwhile they will ask America for more money in order to keep the poor people in check. This method of selling nuisance value has been perfected in Pakistan and if they need advice, I can provide it at 500 dollars an hour via skype...
Fundamentalists are a threat to Egypt because if they hijack the "revolution" it will be crude, violent and unproductive and will eventually lead to either anarchy or an Islamist dictatorship that will barely feed its own population and will someday be replaced by another revolution.
Israel is the only direct affectee outside of Egypt. It is a waste of time to worry about fundamentalists in Egypt if you are an Indian. In fact, the fundamentalists may have to buy stuff from india and China as Europe and the USA will close down a lot of connections. And India may benefit from a few thousand talented Egyptian refugees finding their way to India. What is India's worry from such a "revolution"?

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