Egypt: Revolution fueled by youth and technology

An article in yesterday's NYT chronicles the evolution of the recent Egyptian revolution. There is no doubt that by and large the revolt against the government of Hosni Mubarak was planned, organized and launched by the tech savvy youth of Egypt. The peaceful protests caught the regime by surprise and the ham handed efforts to quell the uprising was not successful. (An interesting aside. Note who organized the crowd and prevented panic and violence against the Mubarak's thugs  - the Muslim Brotherhood and soccer fans, both with experience with the Egyptian police's riot control methods.)

 
Now that Mubarak has been retired by  his "subjects," people have mostly gone back to pick up the thread of their normal lives after their impressive and unexpected political triumph. The world's eyes are on Egypt, while we wait to see how the aftermath of a revolt against despotism will unfold. While everyone wishes that Egyptians will indeed for the first time in a long time, enjoy democratic self-rule, no one is really sure what shape that democracy will eventually assume. Egypt has seen the overthrow of governments, both domestic and foreign several times in the past 150 years. What followed changes in regimes didn't always live up to the expectations of the Egyptian people for whom authoritarianism has been the rule rather than the exception. Some dictators were well loved by the public and others like Mubarak, hated. But it was dictatorship in most cases - of colonizers, kings or elected leaders. While most of us rejoice with the Egyptians for their unprecedented political victory and exceptional courage, let's keep a few things in mind.

• The removal of Mubarak was possible in the end, largely because the Egyptian military refused to provide him further cover. So, his removal was both the result of a public uprising as well as a bloodless military coup.
• That Mubarak did not follow the example of some other repressive regimes, (here, here and here) was a stroke of very good luck for the protesters.
• The Iranian revolution of 1978 - 79 was launched primarily as a populist uprising against a repressive monarchy by mostly secular minded university students, labor unions, as also persecuted religious leaders and scholars. We all know which of the participating groups subsequently hijacked the entire "people's power" movement. 

We do not know what the future trajectory is for Egyptian politics. Just because the techies organized the protests doesn't necessarily mean that their globalized secular views will find favor with the next government. The military is now in control as it has been in much of Egypt's recent history. Will this powerful establishment relinquish their power voluntarily and soon in favor of a democratic people's rule? An equally important unknown in the equation is the will of the common people - the ordinary Egyptians who do not have much use for 21st century technology in their personal lives. What will they demand? It may well turn out that their idea of democracy and freedom may not be the same one that the mostly secular westernized younger bloggers and Facebookers who issued the clarion call for  "change." Instead, the poor, the pious, the less educated and in other words, the more numerous of the Egyptian population may demand an Islamic democracy which will not exactly end up being Revolution 2.0 as one euphoric revolutionary has described it.

For the contradictions and pitfalls of an Islamic democracy in the 21st century, see this legal analysis by Pakistani lawyer Feisal Naqvi over at 3 Quarks Daily.  

 

 

Comments

[Sujatha]

I would beware of assuming that even the technically savvy youth who used FB and Twitter to help spread are without exception secularized. Social media can be a double edged sword that allows fundamentalists of all stripes to twist it to their own advantage. For all we know, most of those in the streets are people of all views ranging from extremely religious to irreligious, but all united in their disgust against a common enemy. The demographics were truly amazing- I saw as many grey-hairs as I did youthful faces in the crowds, chanting their slogans. That's when I knew Mubarak was toast.
In any case, the shut down of the internet and cell phone service came too late for the Mubarak regime- the protesters had reverted to old technology- word of mouth and photocopied flyers to get the word out. To paraphrase one protester, had the internet not been shut down, the armchair warriors might have sat in their chairs rather than taking to the streets.
I wonder if the earlier 'defiant last speech' wasn't a ruse to allow Mubarak some more time to make arrangements and skedaddle from Cairo. It seemed like too dramatically a short turnaround.